Hand of the Week: When NOT to Bluff

Howdy!

I’m JimmyDean67, and I’m a poker junkie! Before we get down to the meat and potatoes of my blog, I think a little bit of introductory stuff is in order…

Like any junkie, I have my highs and lows in this game, and sometimes mental hiccups sabotage my greater success. I have managed to earn a small living playing poker full time though (at least these past 6 months!), and some of that success is due to the time taken to review the MISTAKES I may have made in hopes of avoiding them in future play. Am I perfect? Far from it. I would not even consider myself a “prospering” poker player (I make more in my day job!). I am approaching this “Hand of the Week” blog not from the perspective of my “superior” knowledge, but rather as a way to provide input about certain hand situations from one middle level poker player to another.

Each week I will consider one poker concept, and present a hand (or 2) that I have played, or seen played, and give my thoughts on the hand. Since I KNOW I am not always “right”, any and all comments/questions about that hand/concept will be welcome additions to this blog…in fact the most USEFUL aspect of this will be any discussion arising from my “Hand of the Week”.

Also, anyone wishing to e-mail me hands they have played, hands which they would like to have a “second opinion on, can do reach me at: JimmyDean67@allinjac.com In addition to using a hand I have played or seen, I will present my thoughts on one e-mailed hand each week.

So without further ado, I present the first week’s concept: “When to Bluff”

This evening I was starting this blog, and I got involved in a $50k Monthly Tournement Qualifer on Fleet Street Games. 47 People started this event, and the top 5 receive tokens to the $50k guaranteed free roll at the end of the month. As this tourney has a $10,000 guaranteed first prize, there is a LOT to be gained for dodging the 1000 or so folks who will qualify. The only problem is qualifying in the first place!

Sometimes you will just run into some people who do NOT know how to fold a hand that is most likely beaten…

It is currently Level 2, and already 1/4 of the field is gone. Blinds are at 50/100, and the start stacks were 5000. Let’s take a look at how NOT to bluff…

Gman7777 starts with 5,550

Katatonik starts with 18,550

xxPiratexx starts with 4,850

pokercol starts with 12,425

JimmyDean67 starts with 5,850

quadaaaa starts with 2,450

AceRagWar starts with 1,000

babs7 starts with 4,850

Katatonik has the dealer button

>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<

JimmyDean67 dealt down Jc Qh

xxPiratexx posts the small blind 50

pokercol posts the big blind 100

JimmyDean67 calls 100

quadaaaa folds

AceRagWar folds

babs7 folds

Gman7777 calls 100

Katatonik calls 100

xxPiratexx calls 50

pokercol checks

>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 6s Kh Ac ]

xxPiratexx checks

pokercol bets 100

JimmyDean67 calls 100

Gman7777 calls 100

Katatonik calls 100

xxPiratexx folds

>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ 5h ]

pokercol bets 100

JimmyDean67 raises 1,100 to 1,200

Gman7777 folds

Katatonik folds

pokercol calls 1,100

>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ 2s ]

pokercol checks

JimmyDean67 bets 4,450 and is all-in

pokercol calls 4,450

JimmyDean67 shows ace high

pokercol shows a pair of aces (cards were As 8c)

pokercol wins 12,200 with a pair of aces

JimmyDean67 finishes in 33rd place

This hand is meant to show the potential in my soul for the ultimate in donkitude. I am not proud of this hand in the least, but there are some very interesting points to be seen here…

Mistake #1 in the hand was limping QJo utg. I will admit I fall victim to a bit of “fancy play syndrome” in these free rolls, and in micro stakes events. As the table had shown itself to be chock full of “limp and look” players and under-raisers, I felt that I could see some minor value from getting into a cheap multi-way pot, oop or not, with high connectors.

I should have realized my reads on the table were not firm enough to really tell whether anyone here would min raise a monster though, thus laying me a “price” to continue weakly. Nor were they firm enough to really tell who would fold a top pair/weak kicker type hand either, assuming I do flop my draw/no pair and decide to lead out. Absent those effective reads, I am relying on the draw value of this holding to make my hand, and being oop I probably would be forced to cede the aggressive lead in betting by my weak decision to play here.

Also, a good rule of thumb for oop play is to only enter pots with hands which can stand a raise/re-raise. Now by this I do NOT mean to say you can NEVER play trash like 56s or KTs oop (especially for a raise), but when you DO intend to play crap like that to mix up your game, you MUST be aware that any raise/re-raise has you in the muck. The problem with something like QJo is that the high card value of the hand is often JUST seductive enough to let someone think they CAN stand a small pre-flop raise/re-raise. That did not happen to me here, I did not “marry” myself to the hand by calling a raise pre-flop (there wasn’t one), but I could have very easily been lured along here.

1) When it means little to you whether you win or lose, play a more “basic” game.

The plain truth is I entered this game without much to lose. I already hold 9 or 10 tokens for the 50k guarenteed on this site, so I am set for almost the next year. Why play then? Well, I AM a poker junkie, and it was the event going off when I sat down. Despite not meaning much to me, we should all endevour to play our best game at all times. The comments in mistake #1 show that I was NOT thinking in terms of a “basic” strategy for my play decisions. I looked at the table as a free-roll feeding ground, and saw a chance to get involved with a crud holding, in the hope of flopping big. The money was deep, so had I simply mucked on the clean flop miss, I probably would have been no worse off than down a single BB from off a 58.5 x BB stack…hardly a killer, but FAR from playing a “simple” game plan.

2) If you are not going to play premium cards, make sure your non-card info is of premium value.

Mistake #2 Attempting a “move” without sufficient table image, or a sufficient “read” on your opponent, to back up your play is rarely going to lead to good things happening.

With 2 callers of my utg limp, plus a completion from the SB and a BB check, makes this a pretty fat pot- as a simple take down on the flop will add almost 10% to my stack. Since the money is deep, there is some benefit to be had in making strong moves at sizable pots, especially ones with no shown aggression as well, because it is rare that someone will ride a truly horrible hand against a strong move. The problem comes from the likelihood of rag aces making flat calls.

Pokercol bets out 100 into this 500 chip pot. Because this is a rainbow board with very few draws, I put him on a semi-weak K, a weak draw, or a rag ace. I decide to push hard on my semi-bluff gut shot in hopes of picking up the 600, wrongly assessing the ability of my opponent to muck these weak holdings. My raise to 1200, over Pokercol’s post-oak 100 chip bet could have been a clear signal to him that I was willing to play this hand for a significant portion of my stack. He had a significant chip advantage over me though (12k vs 5.85k), and oftentimes a poor player will not CARE if he loses half his stack, so long as he remains above, or near, the start stack.

It goes without saying that had I possessed a table image that would indicate I may limp AK from utg (rather than raise it), or had I KNEW my opponent was strong enough to get away from A/rag top pair, my semi-bluff move would have stood a much better chance of working. I didn’t have that quality info, and put a significant portion of my stack at risk. Compounding my mistake was the fact I did so against a stack who could bust me. Had this been xxPiratexx, a player I know and one who is a solid disciplined player, I would have known he would not put a significant portion of his tourney equity at risk, and my chances of success here would have been much greater.

3) Be aware when your bluff isn’t being bought, and prepare to stop the bleeding.

I should have known my chances of winning this hand were quite slim when my BIG raise was flat called. I still had a lot of chips left after that bet, and could have ceded betting control to the caller. When he checked the turn, instead I decided to try another move at the swollen pot. As making a pot size bet would have put me more than half in (off my depleted stack, not in total), and as making a SMALLER than pot sized bet would have shown an incongruence in my bluff “story” (why would I lead strong, then bet carefully?), my choice was simple: push or check/fold to anything but a river T. I choose wrong…

So I’ll re-cap some of the points I gathered from my play here:

1) Play games that MATTER to you, or play games that do not matter simply! If the game isn’t improtant, you can all too easily sell yourself on the reasonableness of your stupidity.

2) Non-standard plays, plays where you are not necessarily playing your cards, require especially good reads. Bluffs of all sorts are non-standard plays, with less chance of success than having a hand with real show down value. Before trying these plays, make sure your “other” information is solid.

3) Pick players with something to LOSE to try bluffs. Trying them against big stacks, or against players who do not have a real conception of the value of the chips they hold is a recipe for disaster.

4) When a bluff seems to not be working, it probably isn;t going to work later on either! There is little percentage in maintaining a bluff which has little likelihood of success.

So that’s week #1! See you next week! And I wish you all “GOOD SKILL!”

-JimmyDean

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